📈 Replacement Value

It takes a special kind of nerd to enjoy the business and numbers side of sports, and I am that special kind of nerd. This interest, however, can cause some issues and take the romance out of the game. 

But first, a history lesson. The introduction of mathematics into sports isn’t anything new. We have been tracking statistics in baseball since the turn of the century. No, not this century, the 20th century. 

Yes there are people much smarter than I, comparing baseball players from the 1800s to today. But as the years marched on instead of simply tracking the stats we have started letting the stats shape sports, so much so they made a movie about it in baseball. 

That movie is called Moneyball and it's a great watch if you haven't seen it. Essentially analytics showed that baseball clubs were paying too much for average and power, traditional statistics. And paying too little attention to people who simply got on base more often. A walk is as good as a hit as they say.

Now this seems simple and it is, and if you wander onto BaseballReference.com you will see a myriad of new stats that will tell you how dumb you are for only caring about Home Runs (jk those are still sweet). 

Next up was basketball where the revolution was even simpler somehow. Shoot more 3 pointers because 3 points > 2 points. Wild stuff.

Football meanwhile has caught on to the numbers revolution and started throwing at a much greater rate. This has led to more scoring, and an emphasis on Quarterback play which may leave your Dad a little upset.

But football is a much more complex game to reduce numbers than other sports. Baseball was easy, each at bat is an independent event. Basketball the math just worked so well and there are only 5 players. With football each play has 11 players on each team working together. So a Running back is only as good as his offensive line and the wide receivers can't catch if the quarterback doesn't hit them. 

All of this has led to today where running backs are very angry on the Twittersphere about not being paid. 

Derrick Henry is the best running back of the last couple years and he is not happy with the way fellow running backs are being used and then tossed aside by NFL teams. Even Henry was floated in trade rumors this offseason as the Titans no longer want to pay his large contract. And if you aren't familiar with his work you might want to check this out real quick.

It seems crazy on its face that this player is 1 of only 8 players all time to rush for 2,000 yards, still not 30 years old being overpaid and not wanted by any teams. But despite his propensity to stiff arm other large humans through the earth’s crust. That is in fact what is happening. 

So the question is why? 

If we modify a stat from baseball and use WAR or Wins Above Replacement from 2021 we see that Derrick Henry, the best halfback in the league, was worth less than 0.2 wins over a replacement halfback last year. Essentially making all halfbacks worth the same, which was very little.

Meanwhile, even the worst starting quarterback was worth more than 1 full win over a backup and the top Quarterback in 2021 Tom Brady was worth more than 4 wins.

Not only is the amount of wins different but the difference between the best and the worst starters at each position is also much different. The gap between Tom Brady and his one time back up Jimmy G was nearly 3 wins. While the gap between Derrick Henry and the 24th best at his position was less than 0.1 wins. 

While there may be flaws in this measurement it does fit the eye test. Tom Brady is basically a walking Super Bowl appearance while most despite Derrick Henry’s heroic efforts he cannot carry a team to a title. 

And although the number of millions each of these players make per year may not matter to you, their situation mirrors a lot in society at large. Take me for example, I trade interest rate derivatives on behalf of hedge funds and banks. Or think about your consultant friend who works long hours building spreadsheets to save a major corporation a couple million dollars. These jobs pay a lot because they produce a lot of value, they have a high WAR.

Not so much because they are harder or more valuable to society, but that they often suck as a job but pay handsomely for that suffering and monetary value they provide.

Meanwhile teachers, nurses, firefighters and most other noble professions get underpaid relative to the value they create in society. This is often why these professions also need unions to help them bargain together. 

While one nurse or teacher may be replaceable in a vacuum. Having a society, city or even a small community without either would result in sheer chaos. By banding together they can help improve their pay and overall work conditions.

Derrick Henry is trying to get you to imagine a world without running backs, which to me is only marginally less terrifying than a lawless post-apocalyptic society. 

What’s the Upside?

Sports, whether we like it or not, are a brutal form of capitalism. Advanced metrics mean we pay more for mediocre quarterbacks than once-in-a-lifetime running backs that produce highlight-reel TDs for a living.  

So while this may be the most efficient way to win, I think we can all agree it's a sad day when our favorite heroes in sports and in real life are underpaid. 

But hey at least the NFL Salutes the Troops. 🤷

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For Your Weekend

It’s here. The marketing movie event of the summer.

Oppenheimer reviews.

Barbie reviews.

Butthurt Tom Cruise.

Watch

16 years ago (!), some person on YouTube going by jentendo posted this video. It plays Right Where It Belongs, Nine Inch Nails’ haunting, cinematic final song from their 2005 album With Teeth over archival video of nuclear bomb tests. It’s sobering and moving. Spend five minutes to watch it. It’s well worth your time.

Chuckle